One year and two days ago, the World Health Organization declared the H1N1 virus, or swine flu, a pandemic.

Today, Valley officials say, the isolation and vaccinations against the virus have decreased the spread of it so much that no cases have been seen for more than a month.

“We have not seen any influenza here for the last two months,” said Dr. Lisa Esolen, medical director of infection control at Geisinger Health System.

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Is it possible for a pandemic to save lives?

The short answer is that it just did. Since swine flu first burst onto the scene one year ago this month, fewer Americans appear to have died of influenza-related causes than in any recent flu season.

The pandemic flu kept at bay seasonal strains that normally kill thousands of elderly people. And it did so, somehow, while not sticking around itself. The result: a winter flu season with virtually no seasonal flu, no pandemic flu, no flu of any kind, at least not yet.

“It is very eerie,” said Gregory Storch, director of the infectious diseases division at St. Louis Children’s Hospital.

But before you get all giddy with pandemic appreciation, consider the following:

No one knows why swine flu didn’t return this winter. (Handwashing and vaccination probably helped but don’t fully explain what happened.) Flus of pandemics past have always come back; it was just a question of when and how severe. And it could well be that as more months pass without any strains of flu, fewer people are developing immunity against them – and could get sicker next season.

As for the lower death toll, raw numbers don’t tell the whole story. Yes, very few people died this winter, suppressing the yearlong tally. But the victims, mainly last spring and fall, were nearly all younger people with much of their lives ahead of them. In actuarial terms, this pandemic may turn out to have been more harmful than it seems.

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Nearly half the 162 million doses of H1N1 vaccine produced to fight the deadly flu in the United States have gone unused, and some batches have either expired or are nearing their expiration date.

Allegheny County Health Department will be throwing out 9,400 expired doses of the vaccine mist spray soon, as well as 730 expired doses of the injectable vaccine, said spokesman Guillermo Cole.

Statewide, some 4.6 million doses of H1N1 vaccine have been distributed, but state officials say they don’t know how many were administered, how many are still available or how many have expired.

They do know that more than 683,575 doses were sent to health department district offices and the 60 state health centers, said spokeswoman Stacy Kriedeman. Of those, 26,897 doses have been thrown out because they expired. Overall an estimated 800,000 doses were recalled because they didn’t meet potency standards.

Michael Huff, assistant secretary of health planning and assessment, said that of the 683,575 doses sent to state health centers, “We have less than 40,000 doses left. That is an incredible success story.” But Ms. Kriedeman confirmed that most of the 4.6 million doses Pennsylvania received went to private providers, and said, “We do not have the number of doses expired or unused available.”

In an effort to ensure that Pennsylvania’s citizens are protected against the H1N1 flu virus, the Department of Health will continue to offer vaccination clinics at all 60 state health centers every Saturday through Feb. 6 from 9 a.m. to noon.

All are welcome; no appointments are necessary.”Although flu activity is very low, we predict there will be a third wave of illness from H1N1,” said Secretary of Health Everette James. “The clinics are free and being vaccinated is still the most effective way to protect your health and control the spread of this potentially deadly flu.”The department continues to receive H1N1 vaccine allocations from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC. To date, the CDC has allocated 5, 431,500 to Pennsylvania. More than 3,421 certified private providers have received shipments of H1N1 vaccine.For more information about H1N1 flu and to find a clinic location in your area, visit www.H1N1inPA.com or call 1-877-PA HEALTH (1-877-724-3258).

Health officials recommend that people take advantage of local swine flu vaccination clinics today and Saturday in anticipation of another wave of influenza expected later this winter or early spring.

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The number of confirmed cases in the state peaked at the end of October/beginning of November. Southeastern Pennsylvania had nearly 2,500, while the Northeast region had about 1,800. Next highest was the Southwest region with about 1,400.

For the week ending Jan. 2, there was a decline in flu cases in all but the Northeast region of the state, according to the data.

“We’re definitely at a low, but we do believe the disease will come back,” said state health department spokeswoman Stacy Kriedman.

“There will be a third wave, based on previous pandemics, but we’re not sure if it will be in late winter or early spring. So it’s really important that people take advantage of this lull. We are having vaccination clinics (today) and Saturday at 33 locations across the state,” Kriedman said.

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The Pennsylvania Department of Health yesterday expanded eligibility for the swine flu vaccine, saying health-care providers that had already immunized patients most at risk could now make vaccine available to the general population.

Since the vaccine became available a little more than two months ago, it has largely been limited to groups that a federal advisory panel identified as most in danger of complications from the flu or most likely to transmit it to others. How to interpret and enforce those recommendations, however, has been left to state and local governments. They, in turn, based decisions partly on how much vaccine was available – and likely still will.

Laura Brewster, healthy and fit at 56, ran, swam, and played tennis. Two weeks ago, she returned to Glenside from a dream vacation in China. Less than a week later, she was dead of swine flu.

Kevin Hirsch, 26, almost never missed a day of work at a McDonald’s restaurant in Northeast Philadelphia. “He didn’t have a runny nose, a cold, or a fever in 15 years,” said his father, Mickey, who disconnected his son’s life support on Nov. 18 after nearly 15 agonizing days in the ICU.

For months, public health authorities have emphasized the dangers of swine flu for people with specific medical conditions. Such patients account for between 60 and 80 percent of hospitalizations and deaths.

But 20 to 40 percent do not fit that profile. Some may have gotten medical care too late. Some may have had underlying conditions not known to them or their doctors or factors, such as a genetic predisposition, that science has yet to discover. Others may simply have lost out in the roll of the dice, such as the nonsmoker who dies of lung cancer.

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State health officials say the federal government has allocated nearly 3 million doses of swine flu vaccine to Pennsylvania so far.

As of Monday, officials say the vaccine has been distributed to more than 1,600 certified providers. They include pediatricians, family health practitioners, obstetricians, hospitals, schools, colleges and universities.

The state is urging vaccinations for people considered most vulnerable to complications from the H1N1 virus.

Those groups include pregnant women, health care providers, persons six months to 24 years old, caregivers of children under six months, and those under 65 with certain underlying medical conditions.

Assorted thoughts on assorted subjects:

          Get a shot: It’s hard to believe that we are well into December, and not all local school districts have yet received H1N1 flu vaccines.

Several local districts were getting the vaccine this week.

But even with those students protected against “swine flu,” there will still be five school districts in York County after next week that have not yet received the vaccine.

Well, at least there’s good news: That flu hasn’t been as virulent as many worried it would be. The new infection rate seems to be waning.

That doesn’t mean there’s no danger, though: The flu has caused some 60 deaths statewide this year — including a youngster from Littlestown.

And health officials said there will almost certainly be a third wave of infections — the first was this spring, the second is going on now, and no one is certain when the next wave will hit.

But the slow rollout and distribution of the vaccine is worrisome. What if this second wave had proved much more potent and deadly? How would we have fared? And might some of those 60 people have been spared if it had been possible to make the vaccine available in adequate supplies sooner?

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security and think, “Well, the flu season is practically over now — no need to get that shot.”

At the very least, make sure your kids take advantage of school-based vaccination programs.